Seizing Greenland risks ‘monumental’ fallout, ex-Iceland president warns, as Trump sharpens rhetoric
A potential U.S. military move to seize Greenland would have "monumental consequences" for the Western alliance and the global order, according to Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, Iceland's former president and current Chairman of the Arctic Circle. Grimsson warned that the fallout would be "on a scale that we have never seen in living memory."
The stark assessment comes as President Donald Trump intensifies rhetoric on controlling the autonomous Danish territory, framing it as a national security imperative to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. Grimsson dismissed these concerns as overblown, stating, "At the present there is not a direct, clear, obvious threat from Russia and China in the Arctic," and noted their limited activity in the broader Nordic, Canadian, and U.S. Arctic regions.
Recent high-level talks at the White House between U.S., Danish, and Greenlandic officials ended in a "fundamental disagreement," with all parties agreeing only to continue discussions. Greenland's Prime Minister has explicitly stated the territory would choose Denmark over the United States if forced.
Grimsson argued that the U.S. strategic rationale is unclear, as existing agreements already provide extensive access. The 1951 Greenland Defense Agreement permits U.S. military bases, and both Danish and Greenlandic authorities have expressed openness to expanding American and NATO presence. "There are no barriers at the moment for enhanced American security or business presence within Greenland," he said.
Instead, Grimsson suggested Trump's fixation may stem from a real estate mindset. "He is probably the first major global leader who had all his training and thinking done through the real estate business," Grimsson noted. "Real estate guys think in locations."
If the goal is a stronger Arctic posture, Grimsson urged the U.S. to focus on domestic investment, pointing to underfunded infrastructure like icebreakers and ports in America's own Arctic region. "If you want an enhanced presence in the Arctic, start at home," he advised.
While acknowledging that a military takeover is technically possible given the vast power imbalance and Greenland's small population, Grimsson emphasized the unprecedented political cost. Such an action, he cautioned, would fundamentally fracture NATO and the international order, achieving little beyond "putting the flag of the United States and acquiring location."
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