Are we past the shock yet that Indiana is playing for the College Football Playoff National Championship, and are we well past the controversy of how Miami got into the tournament in the first place?

It's been done to death how Indiana went from blah to superpower in a two-year hiccup under head coach Curt Cignetti, and Notre Dame fans are still angry that the process twisted things so the Hurricanes were the last team in.

Now it's about the game, and it's one of the most interesting national championship matchups ever.

Jan 9, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti reacts on stage after the 2025 Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Oregon Ducks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images (© Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)

Miami hasn't played for the national title since losing an epic Fiesta Bowl to Ohio State to end the 2002 season - almost everyone on the current Hurricane roster wasn't even born yet. 

It's been a disappointing run since then with just one ten-win season before head coach Mario Cristobal got the team close last year in a 10-3 run, but that ended with a gag to miss out on the CFP.

And here's the crazy part in the new era of a 12-team College Football Playoff - this is now the winningest team in Miami football history.

There weren't 13 games to play 25 years ago, so even though the program won ten or more 14 times, and was almost always in the national title hunt, from 1983 to 2003, it never got to 13 wins like this year's team.

Forget winning 13 games, the Indiana football program had never won ten games in a season before Cignetti arrived two years ago.

2024 was the first double-digit win season - winning 11 - but not everyone bought in that it was anything other than a funky quirk. Obviously, getting to 15-0, winning the Big Ten Championship, and being the overwhelming favorite to win the national title in unfathomable for a team that went 3-9 in 2023.

This is a program that failed to win more than four games in 82 of the first 125 years of playing football - before Cignetti.

Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Jan 8, 2026; Glendale, AZ, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) rushes the ball against the Mississippi Rebels in the second half during the 2026 Fiesta Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at State Farm Stadium.© Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images (© Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)

The pass rush has to work from the start.

The Indiana blocking has been otherworldly in the College Football Playoff, but it also hasn't faced anyone who can get to the quarterback on a regular basis.

As good as the Oregon defense was this season, it didn't have an elite pass rush. Neither did Alabama. The Hoosiers didn't face too many killer pass rushing teams all year - Ohio State's was just okay, Penn State's was fine - and now it has to deal with something completely different.

Miami comes into this with the fourth-best defense in the nation in generating sacks per game, and if it works in this, the dynamic changes.

Mendoza is great at getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry, but he's devastating when he gets time to let his receivers run their long, ultra-precise routes - IU is living off the back shoulder throws.

The Canes only got to Trinidad Chambliss once in the win over Ole Miss, but the five sacks against Ohio State and seven against Texas A&M changed both games.

And then there's the experience factor on the other side. The offense has been brilliant at keeping the chains moving, hitting 50% or more on its third down chances in five of its last six games. 

Indiana is No. 1 in the nation in third down conversions, and the defense is getting off the field fast so far in the CFP. Miami has to change that by grinding, setting up manageable third-and-short plays, and grinding some more.

Penn State was the only team to run more than 32 times against Indiana, and it was the only team to gain more than 100 yards - and it almost won. Miami has rushed 32 times or more in every game but four, and it has to bash away to pull this off.

Jan 9, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) warms up prior to the 2025 Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Oregon Ducks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.© Brett Davis-Imagn Images (© Brett Davis-Imagn Images)

Indiana isn't screwing up. On the flip side, it's capitalizing on every opportunity and turning the slightest openings into game-changing moments that the other side can't overcome.

How many times have the Hoosiers turned it over in the CFP? Zero. How many penalties have they been hit with in the two games? Six. 

They ... don't ... screw ... up.

Miami turned the ball over multiple times in three games this year. Once was in the blowout over USF, the other two were the losses to SMU and Louisville.

Indiana will take the fight to the Hurricanes, but it'll be more than happy to be patient, not force anything, play the field position game, and wait for that one moment when it can capitalize on the mistake.

It might just take one Miami error to be enough.

All of the other parts of Indiana are humming, but this is Fernando Mendoza's moment.

Nothing has been too big for him. In the two games against Oregon and Alabama, he hit 85% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no picks. He's not going to take any big chances, the running game is working well enough to take the pressure off, and ...

Can Indiana really pitch a third straight perfect game?

Yeah, some of the previous anti-IU stuff was real. It might have annihilated Illinois, but it struggled against Oregon the first time around, needed something special to get by Penn State, and was pushed hard by Iowa in the three big games of the regular season.

It's also been lost in the weeds that Ohio State blinked against Indiana, with a missed field goal the difference in a tight 13-10 game.

No, Alabama wasn't that good - it was exposed in the Rose Bowl.

Yes, Oregon wasn't the same without its top running backs - that wasn't why it lost, but the lack of pop and options from the backfield didn't help.

Miami has the starting 22. It has the lines, it has the veteran quarterback, the toughness, and it has the veteran mindset needed to pull this off.

Being on its home field won't matter - it'll be Bloomington Gardens with IU fans overrunning the place as much as they're able to - but it will help with the mindset that, yeah, it really is good enough to pull this off.

And then Miami will miss a key field goal in the early fourth quarter.

Indiana's improbable dream will come true with two wonderful late scoring drives to finally breathe easily, but for the first time, it'll have to deal with a little bit of drama this playoff season.

And then Curt Cignetti will cement himself as pulling off the greatest turnaround in college football history.

Indiana 27, Miami 20
Line: Indiana -8.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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This story was originally published by College Football News on Jan 15, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.