Sony Open picks 2026: This Englishman will open the season with a win in Hawaii
The PGA Tour's full-field season opener has arrived. With the 2026 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu set to begin, Golf Digest's expert betting panel has convened to provide exclusive outright winner selections, sleeper picks, and matchup bets to navigate the first gambling event of the new year.
Our panel, featuring a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, and analysts Keith Stewart, Stephen Hennessey, and Christopher Powers, is coming off a 2025 season that yielded 13 individual outright victories.
Sony Open Picks 2026: Our Experts' Outright Predictions
The panel's selections offer a range of contenders, from established favorites to compelling longshots.
The anonymous Swing Coach highlights Hideki Matsuyama (18-1) as a value play, citing the former champion's affinity for Hawaiian courses and momentum from a recent victory.
Pat Mayo and Stephen Hennessey are aligned on Aaron Rai (35-1), praising his accuracy and iron play as an ideal fit for the positional Waialae layout.
Keith Stewart and Christopher Powers both endorse veteran Chris Kirk (45-1), pointing to his past success in Hawaii and a reliable right-to-left ball flight suited for the course.
Ryan Noonan advocates for the skillset of Russell Henley (11-1), the 2013 champion, who consistently contends at Waialae due to elite wedge play and Bermudagrass proficiency.
Andy Lack selects Corey Conners (33-1), noting the Canadian's strong course history and a high note finish to the 2025 campaign.
Sony Open Picks 2026: Sleepers and Dark Horses
For those seeking greater odds, the experts have identified several potential surprise contenders.
The Tour Coach suggests Bud Cauley (125-1) as a high-value longshot on a shorter track.
Mayo believes Daniel Berger (66-1) is a reasonable price for a player of his caliber if he has resolved prior short-game struggles during the offseason.
Stewart is backing rookie Johnny Keefer (70-1), impressed by his driving and putting during a recent walk at the RSM Classic.
Noonan and Lack have both identified Ryan Gerard (60-1) as a sleeper, with Lack citing Gerard's precision driving as a key asset in forecasted windy conditions.
Powers takes a deep dive with Tom Hoge (200-1), a past tour winner whose game fits the course profile.
Sony Open Picks 2026: Players We're Fading
The panel also advises caution on several highly-ranked players this week.
The Tour Coach and Keith Stewart are fading Si Woo Kim (18-1) and Collin Morikawa (22-1), respectively, citing potential off-course distractions and a poor course fit for Morikawa's current game.
Mayo is avoiding favorite Russell Henley (11-1) solely due to the short price in a volatile event.
Noonan is steering clear of Jordan Spieth (33-1), wanting to see form after his return from injury.
Hennessey is fading Robert MacIntyre (20-1) due to unimpressive stats on shorter, positional courses.
Lack is against Harry Hall (33-1), believing wind will neutralize his putting advantage.
Sony Open Picks 2026: Matchups and Top 10s
The experts have also provided head-to-head matchup selections and top-10 value bets. Key matchups include the coach backing Brian Harman over Rico Hoey, and a split opinion on the Daniel Berger vs. Chris Gotterup duel, with Noonan and Powers favoring Berger's experience. For top-10 finishes, multiple panelists see value in Chris Kirk (+450) and Harry Hall (+410).
The 2026 golf betting journey begins now at Waialae.
