Airlines to save big money on fuel as new weight loss pills gain popularity, Wall Street says
Wall Street analysts have identified a novel potential tailwind for the airline industry: the rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss medications. According to a new analysis from Jefferies, a slimmer society could meaningfully reduce airlines' single largest expense—jet fuel—thereby boosting earnings.
The rationale centers on aircraft weight, a critical driver of fuel efficiency. Jefferies posits that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lead to roughly a 2% savings in total aircraft weight. This, in turn, could lower fuel consumption by up to 1.5% and boost earnings per share (EPS) by as much as 4% for major carriers.
"The implications could be material for the largest U.S. carriers," the firm noted, highlighting American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines. The four airlines are projected to spend nearly $39 billion on fuel in 2026, accounting for about 19% of their collective operating expenses.
Jefferies modeled that a 2% decline in average passenger weight could translate to significant EPS upside: approximately 2.8% for Delta, 3.5% for United, 4.2% for Southwest, and up to 11.7% for American Airlines, which has higher operating leverage to fuel costs.
The catalyst is the arrival of oral GLP-1 drugs. Novo Nordisk's pill is now available, and a similar treatment from Eli Lilly is expected to gain U.S. approval within months. The convenience of a pill over an injection is anticipated to broaden access to obesity treatments significantly.
The industry has a long history of meticulous weight-saving measures to cut fuel use. Jefferies cited United Airlines' 2018 move to switch to lighter paper for its in-flight magazine, saving an estimated 170,000 gallons of fuel annually. "Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock," the analysts wrote.
Using a Boeing 737 Max 8 as an example, the report illustrated the impact: passengers account for about 32,000 pounds of the aircraft's payload. A 10% reduction in average weight would shed 3,200 pounds—roughly 2% of maximum takeoff weight—delivering substantial fuel savings across thousands of annual flights.
While societal weight reduction would be a gradual process, the analysis frames it as a unique and underappreciated factor that could enhance airline profitability in the coming years.
