Trump’s tariff gambit over Iran risks derailing U.S.–China trade deal
A new tariff threat from President Donald Trump targeting countries that conduct business with Iran has sharply escalated the risk of derailing the fragile interim trade agreement between the United States and China, Tehran’s largest trading partner.
In a Truth Social post Monday, Trump declared the U.S. would impose an immediate 25% tariff on imports from nations engaging with Iran. The move directly challenges China, which has long been a critical economic lifeline for Iran, purchasing over half of its imports from the sanctioned state, primarily crude oil. Although Chinese imports from Iran have declined 28% in 2025 amid tightening U.S. sanctions, energy ties remain substantial.
China responded swiftly, with a Chinese Embassy spokesperson stating Beijing “firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction” and vowed to take “all necessary measures” to defend its interests. The confrontation threatens to unravel the hard-won one-year trade truce secured last October, which had rolled back some punitive tariffs and paused China’s rare earth export controls.
Risk of Rapid Escalation
Trade analysts warn the situation could spiral. “If Trump is serious about the 25% rate, that is a massive escalation from current tariff levels,” said Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation, recalling that previous tit-for-tat rounds pushed tariffs as high as 145%. Dan Wang of Eurasia Group noted the threat is “eroding the thin trust built around the trade truce,” with China likely to respond with sanctions on U.S. firms or antitrust probes against American tech companies.
