NFL Week 18 scenarios: Who can clinch what? How can they do it? And who's playing starters?
There's a lot left to be decided in Week 18 of the NFL regular season, including:
Four division titles (AFC North, AFC South, NFC South and NFC West)
No. 1 seed in the AFC
No. 1 seed in the NFC
No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft
Numerous playoff seedings
Here's your rundown of what's at stake each game, and how seriously each team is taking it.
Panthers at Buccaneers | Seahawks at 49ers | Colts at Texans | Titans at Jaguars | Cowboys at Giants | Browns at Bengals | Packers at Vikings | Saints at Falcons | Dolphins at Patriots | Chargers at Broncos | Commanders at Eagles | Lions at Bears | Jets at Bills | Cardinals at Rams | Chiefs at Raiders | Ravens at Steelers
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What’s at stake for Panthers: If the Panthers win or tie, the NFC South and the No. 4 seed are theirs no matter what. If they lose, then they need help detailed below.
What’s at stake for Buccaneers: If the Buccaneers win, they still need the Falcons to lose or tie Sunday against the Saints to clinch the NFC South and the No. 4 seed. If the Bucs and Falcons both win, then there's a three-way tie atop the NFC South at 8-9, and the tiebreaker goes to the Panthers.
Are both teams going for it? You better believe it.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
- SEA -1.5
- O/U 49.5
What’s at stake for Seahawks: If the Seahawks win or tie, they clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
What’s at stake for 49ers: If the 49ers win, they clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
Are both teams going for it? These two teams vs. each other? With all this on the line? Book it.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
- IND +10.5
- O/U 39
What’s at stake for Colts: Nothing except the chance to ruin a rival's shot at the division title. Even Indianapolis' first-round draft pick, which is currently 18th, goes to the Jets next spring thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade.
What’s at stake for Texans: If the Texans win and the Jaguars lose, the Texans win the AFC South.
Are both teams going for it? The Texans sure will. As for the Colts, the only big player news is rookie sixth-round quarterback Riley Leonard will reportedly start over Philip Rivers. So it sounds like both teams will be as close to full strength as can be.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
What’s at stake for Titans: Just the chance to play spoiler, and also potentially clinch the No. 2 pick in the draft with a loss and wins by the Giants, Jets and Cardinals.
What’s at stake for Jaguars: A lot. If the Jaguars win or tie, they'll win the AFC South no matter what. They can also win it with a Texans loss or tie. Jacksonville also has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would require a win plus losses by the Broncos and Patriots.
Are both teams going for it? The Jaguars definitely are. The Titans haven't indicated they'll sit anyone yet.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
What’s at stake for Cowboys: Draft positioning in the mid-first round and the chance to springboard into a more hopeful 2026.
What’s at stake for Giants: There's still a chance the Giants can get the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. They would have to lose, the Raiders would have to win, and at least two of the following teams would also have to win: Seahawks, Falcons, Browns and Bears. It's also one last chance for interim head coach Mike Kafka to make his case to be the permanent head coach.
Are both teams going for it? Dallas is going to play its starters including Dak Prescott, but Jerry Jones hinted Tuesday that Prescott might not play much. The Cowboys also just released cornerback Trevon Diggs, so they seem to be getting a head start on offseason moves. The Giants, meanwhile, plan to play their starters too.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
What’s at stake for Browns: The Browns can get the No. 2 pick in the draft with a loss plus wins by the Giants, Jets, Titans and Cardinals. They currently hold the No. 6 pick. Myles Garrett is also aiming for the single-season sack record. He's a half-sack away from the record books.
What’s at stake for Bengals: Cincinnati will pick either in the back half of the top 10 or early in the teens no matter what.
Are both teams going for it? So far, both the Bengals and Browns have indicated their starters will play Week 18.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
What’s at stake for Packers: Nothing. The Packers are locked into the NFC's seventh seed and a wild-card trip to either Chicago or Philadelphia.
What’s at stake for Vikings: Mid-first round draft positioning. The Vikings will be picking in the teens or early 20s.
Are both teams going for it? The Packers haven't decided if they're playing their starters yet, though it would behoove them to at least sit QB Jordan Love even if he clears concussion protocol this week as expected. Meanwhile, the Vikings haven't indicated their plans yet.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
What’s at stake for Saints: Tyler Shough's Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign and some optimism heading into 2026. Shough has been pretty good since becoming the starter, and the Saints are on a four-game win streak to close Kellen Moore's first season in charge. They're locked into a late top 10 or early teens first-round draft pick.
What’s at stake for Falcons: For the Falcons themselves? Very little, with their first-round draft pick this year going to the Rams thanks to the James Pearce Jr. trade last spring. But for the NFC South? That's where things go full sicko mode.
If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, then the fate of the NFC South rests in the Falcons' hands. If they win, the Panthers are division champions anyway, since the top three teams would be tied at 8-9 and the Panthers own the tiebreaker. If the Falcons lose, the Buccaneers would win the division. Yes ... ha ha ha ... YES!
Are both teams going for it? This is one of the NFL's most vicious rivalries. Both teams appear to be playing their starters, and don't expect that to change.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
What’s at stake for Dolphins: The chance to deny the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. Mike McDaniel's last chance to state his case to be head coach in 2026. Draft positioning too, since the pick could fall anywhere in the late top 10 to the teens.
What’s at stake for Patriots: There are two scenarios that would land the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Either they win and the Broncos lose or tie, or they tie and the Broncos lose.
Are both teams going for it? Expect the Patriots to, with the Broncos playing at the same time Sunday. Meanwhile the Dolphins haven't indicated they're going to sit anybody, and likely want one more look at rookie seventh-round QB Quinn Ewers.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
What’s at stake for Chargers: Strap in. Out of 64 possible AFC playoff seeding scenarios, 18 end with the Chargers in the fifth seed (28%), 30 end with the Chargers in the sixth seed (47%), and 16 end with the Chargers in the seventh seed (25%). Fun!
What’s at stake for Broncos: Win and they're the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Beyond that, they can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a tie and a Patriots loss or tie. They can also get it with a loss, as long as the Patriots lose and the Jaguars lose or tie.
Are both teams going for it? The Broncos almost certainly will, with head coach Sean Payton describing Sunday as "like a playoff game" and stressing the importance of the No. 1 seed historically. The Chargers, meanwhile, are resting quarterback Justin Herbert, who fractured his non-throwing hand in Week 13. They might rest more starters too, given how many injuries they've already suffered this season.
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