‘Resource nationalism’ could propel gold to $5,000 and silver to $100 this year, investors say
Precious metals are surging into the new year, with gold and silver hitting consecutive record highs as investors bet on sustained momentum driven by geopolitical instability, supply constraints, and mounting concerns over central bank independence.
Spot gold climbed to approximately $4,633 per ounce early Wednesday, following a record high above $4,600 on Monday. The rally was catalyzed by news of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—a development that intensified doubts about the central bank’s autonomy. Spot silver, meanwhile, breached the $90 per ounce milestone for the first time on Tuesday and continued rising, last seen up 3.5% at $90.42.
"Resource Nationalism" and Geopolitical Chess
Analysts point to escalating “resource nationalism” as a key structural driver. Daniel Casali of Evelyn Partners highlighted how trade tensions between the U.S. and China have evolved into a battle over critical materials. “China responded [to U.S. tariffs] by restricting rare earth exports… and then we have export restrictions on silver,” Casali told CNBC. Silver is essential for AI, electric vehicles, and renewable technology, making supply disruptions acutely felt.
Recent geopolitical flashpoints—including the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and discussions around Greenland—add further uncertainty. Casali framed the dynamic as a strategic contest: “China will have their exports of rare earths and silver… and what Trump is doing now is trying to restrict resources that go to China, like Venezuelan oil.”
Outlook: $5,000 Gold and $100 Silver in Sight
Ned Naylor-Leyland of Jupiter Asset Management stated it is “absolutely” possible for gold to reach $5,000 and silver to surpass $100 this year. He emphasized a critical physical shortage in silver, noting a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai as bullion moves east. “If you don’t have it, you can’t build anything,” he said, underscoring silver’s indispensable role across electronics, defense, and automotive sectors.
For gold, a dovish monetary policy backdrop and concerns over currency debasement continue to support prices. Paul Syms of Invesco noted that the factors propelling metals in 2025 “are possibly even more prevalent now,” citing persistent geopolitical tensions, high budget deficits, and strong industrial demand for silver.
With central bankers globally expressing solidarity with Powell but failing to quell market nerves, the stage is set for another volatile year. As one analyst concluded, “there does not appear to be any catalyst in the near term that is likely to cause prices to drop.”
